Have you thought about how climate change will affect coffee farming?

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By the end of the century, climate change may cause about half of Ethiopia's coffee-growing areas to be unsuitable for coffee cultivation; but the study is not all bad news, and the authors suggest that through coffee-growing areas transfer, afforestation and forest protection, the total area of coffee cultivation is expected to quadruple.

Small fruit coffee (Coffea arabica) contributes to the world's major coffee bean production, it originated in Ethiopia, accounting for 1/4 of the country's export earnings. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on coffee production, but it is not easy to predict the impact of climate change at the local level.

Small fruit coffee (Coffea arabica), also known as Arabica coffee, accounts for about 70% of global coffee production and originates in Ethiopia.

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Justin Moat and colleagues at the Royal Botanical Gardens in London designed different transfer scenarios, using high-resolution climate data developed by the World Climate Research Initiative (WCRP) and the latest satellite imagery data to generate predictions of coffee suitability over four periods of time-from the 1960s to the 21st century. In this way, they can divide every square kilometer of land in Ethiopia into five categories according to the extent to which coffee is suitable for growing coffee: unsuitable, barely suitable, suitable, good and optimal. Then, in order to verify the accuracy of the model, the researchers drove and walked about 30, 000 kilometers and visited more than 1800 sites between 2013 and 2016.

Ethiopia's main coffee producing areas, five types of coffee growing land and experimental sites, etc.

Moat et al.

They found that by the end of the century, 59% of the current coffee producing areas may no longer be suitable for growing coffee, a clear indication of the threat posed by climate change. However, the authors also believe that climate change-related temperature increases may increase coffee-growing areas in Ethiopia over the next 20 years. Finally, they pointed out the most suitable forest areas as a "refuge" for genetic diversity of wild small fruit coffee.