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Coffee prices have risen sharply, and research suggests that Liberica may be the next major coffee crop

Published: 2026-05-16 Author:

Last Updated: 2026/05/16, Recently, the price of coffee futures has risen sharply, with the main contract price of Arabica futures breaking through 200 cents / lb, and the assistant contract price of Robusta coffee futures approaching 3000 US dollars / ton. According to the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam, Vietnam's total coffee exports fell 7.4% to 119297 in November compared with the same period last year.

Recently, the price of coffee futures has risen sharply, with the main contract price of Arabica futures breaking through 200 cents / lb, and the assistant contract price of Robusta coffee futures approaching 3000 US dollars / ton.

According to the General Administration of Customs, Vietnam's total coffee exports fell 7.4 per cent to 119297 tons in November from a year earlier, and 10.4 per cent to 1.4 million tons since 2023. The Vietnam Coffee Association predicts that coffee production in Vietnam will be reduced from 1.78 million tons to between 1.78 million and 1.7 million tons in 2023. The association also predicts that Vietnam's coffee exports could fall by 15 to 1.411 million tons in 2023 and 24. Vietnam has collected 75% of this year's coffee production, but local farmers and estates are slowing sales and expect prices to continue to rise.

Demand for Brazilian robusta coffee will be boosted by the limited supply of Vietnamese exports, but according to a recent report by Cooabriel, Brazil's largest Robusta coffee co-operative, production is expected to fall by 15 to 25 per cent in 2024 due to El Ni ñ o weather. The production area is the largest in Brazil, with production of 10.155 million bags (60 kg each) in 2023. But it is now suffering from high temperatures and reduced rainfall caused by El Ni ñ o. Especially during the growing period of coffee berry fruit, it is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of high temperature, and the intensification of diseases and insect pests in some areas also affect the yield.

At present, the coffee market has long been dominated by Arabica and Robusta, but the current shortage of global supply has led to higher prices, so many people have turned their attention to other coffee varieties. According to a paper published in Natural plants, the study suggests that climate change will change the appropriate environment for commercial coffee production, especially higher quality but relatively sensitive Arabica varieties. So opening up new crops may be a more effective adaptation strategy than relocating farms or adapting to existing ones. Expand the coffee crop mix, including new varieties, hybrids and alternative species (including underutilized crop species), with a focus on forgotten or underutilized varieties.

It is well known that Liberica can produce larger fruits and beans, but the flavor is mediocre. Therefore, many people turn to excelsa, which is a variant of Liberica, and many researchers have been interested in it in recent years. Because its coffee quality and planting requirements are better than Liberica, while retaining the resistance of Liberica to pests and diseases. And it has been said earlier that the global coffee industry faces the problem of 2050, which will have an impact on the cultivation of Arabica and Robusta. This is the key to the re-emergence of Liberica (including excelsa) as a major crop.

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