Attack! The smell of gunpowder is growing in southern Addis Ababa

Local media in Ethiopia reported on Aug. 17 that six civilians, including a local priest, were injured in a deadly attack in the Arsi Zone district of Oromia, and three others were injured.

According to locals, the attack was carried out by an armed group called Shane, also known as the Oromo Liberation Army. At present, residents are increasingly worried about the continuing security problems in the area, which is half controlled by the Oromo Liberation Army and the other half occupied by government forces, and conflicts may occur at any time.

In addition, clashes also broke out in the northwest of the country, and according to local media reports in Ethiopia on 16 August, the FANO Armed Forces, an armed group in Ethiopia, are looking to take control of the capital of Amhara State and the city of Bahir Dar, where the local government is located.

According to local citizens, grenade explosions have occurred frequently in parts of Bakhdar city recently, shops in the city have been closed, and several local news media have reported that there is a solid military base less than 30 kilometers away in Bakhdar city.

However, the Office of Peace and Security in the region said that Fano forces did not have the ability and authority to infiltrate and control the city of Bakhdar, and that federal and regional security forces were sufficiently prepared to maintain peace and take "military action."

It is reported that the Ethiopian Federal Government Defense Forces have recently deployed more than 30,000 soldiers under the leadership of three military generals and plan to defeat the Farno forces in the Gojam region. In response to the government defense forces, the Fano force has announced restrictions on the passage of vehicles, allowing only ambulance vehicles to pass through. The aim is to disrupt the logistical supply of government forces, which is known and complied with by people in the transport industry and truck drivers, but Fano's forces have not yet determined when to disarm.

It is understood that the biggest problem in Ethiopia at present is the serious decline in the exchange rate and the rise in local costs. Amhara is Ethiopia's main agricultural and animal husbandry location, is mainly food supply, and the current closure of roads in some areas by Farno forces will affect the transport of goods between regions and may lead to higher prices.

At present, the frantic devaluation of the Ethiopian currency Bill caused by the reform of the new policy by the Ethiopian government has led to a sharp rise in the prices of local products, especially imported goods. At present, there is a continuous civil war and closed routes in some areas, greatly affecting the regional economy. Moreover, once a large-scale war begins, it will cause damage to the roads, infrastructure and supply chains in the surrounding areas, affecting the country's coffee, food and other industries.

In addition, with regard to the current predicament in Ethiopia, people in the coffee industry say that the current planting costs are rising, including people's cost of living, planting chemical fertilizers, and so on, and the price of raw coffee will continue to rise. at the same time, they are worried that the price rise is too high, reducing the purchasing desire of traders and affecting the international influence of Ethiopian coffee.

In the past, Ethiopian wars mostly occurred in the north of the country, and the coffee producing areas were located in the southern part of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, so they had not been directly affected before, and this attack also made it impossible to assess the impact on the country's coffee industry in the vicinity of the coffee producing areas. In 2019, ethnic conflicts in the region also developed into regional unrest, with hundreds of thousands of people leaving their places of residence.

Moreover, at present, exports are still affected by the Red Sea crisis, and the situation of exports is slow. On August 14, the peace talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, organized by Turkey, ended. It is reported that the second round of talks has made progress, but a final agreement needs to be reached in the third round of talks. Therefore, Ethiopia is still unable to use Somali ports, and the problem of port tension cannot be effectively resolved in a short period of time.