The United States will intervene in the political situation of Tigray, Ethiopia!

According to Ethiopian media reports the Chairman of the interim Government of the State of Tegre Ethiopia met with the United States Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa on 12 September to discuss challenges and opportunities for the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. It is said that the discussions between the two sides focused on the specific difficulties restricting the implementation of the agreement, and discussed potential solutions to advance the agreement.

Later, the US envoy said that the US government is committed to supporting the interim government of Tigre in speeding up and accomplishing its task. The Chairman of the interim Government of Tigre stressed that there is a need for the international community to exert joint pressure to fully implement the agreement to enable displaced persons to return to their homes and to resolve the humanitarian crisis faced by Tigray refugees, if not, it could have serious consequences for peace and stability in the region. According to social media at the US embassy, both sides agreed that the Pretoria Agreement on cessation of hostilities must be fully implemented in order to achieve lasting peace in the Tigray region.

It is understood that in November 2020, a large-scale civil war broke out in Ethiopia, which was caused by the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian federal central government. After two years of war, the two sides signed the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022 in the South African capital, Pretoria, and established the interim Government of the Tigre region (TIA) to govern the region.

Even though the two sides have signed a peace agreement, riots have occurred recently between TPLF and the Ethiopian government, which have turned into long-term violent clashes as a result of long-standing land disputes. And due to some practices of the Ethiopian government, led to the dissatisfaction of the armed forces in Amhara region, the outbreak of greater conflicts.

However, in recent days, differences have emerged within the TPLF, with some people dissatisfied with the current interim chairman, the divisions among the internal factions have worsened, and there is a trend of civil war. Accordingly, on 10 September this year, the Vice-Chairman of the interim Government of the Tigre region and Director of the Secretariat of the Cabinet of Peace and Security issued a stern warning to various factions within PFDJ, calling for an end to activities that exacerbate political chaos and public disunity. But the current involvement of the United States can aggravate the differences and emotions between the two sides.

Judging from the current situation, there are serious divisions within PFDJ, and a regional civil war may break out at any time, and the Ethiopian government will also intervene in this situation, which may break out a larger and more serious civil war, which has a serious impact on many industries in Ethiopia.

At present, due to the foreign exchange policy launched by the Ethiopian government earlier, the Ethiopian currency has depreciated and local prices have risen, even though the government has provided some subsidies. In particular, food products, meat and cooking oil, compared with the previous period, the price of mutton has increased by 1000 to 2000 Bill, some products are four times more expensive, and daily necessities such as onions and taffy have also become more expensive.

Tigrel State, located in the northernmost part of Ethiopia, is an important agricultural area, mainly growing food crops such as wheat and corn, as well as animal husbandry such as cattle and sheep, mainly supplied to Ethiopia. The current internal struggle in the state and the ongoing violence will exacerbate inflation in Ethiopia, and prices will continue to rise, increasing the cost of living.

For the country's very important coffee industry, although the current conflict is mainly in the north and does not pose much security threat to coffee-producing areas in the south, the most serious problems at present are exchange rate instability and rising costs, as the country's security issues are rigorous, it is very easy to affect the exchange rate, and coffee prices will also rise, which may lead to a surge in illegal trade, which is not conducive to industrial development.

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