Floods will be seen in southwestern Vietnam! High coffee prices will remain until the end of the year

According to Vietnamese media reports, due to the continuous attack of Capricorn and Su Li tropical storms in Vietnam earlier, although it did not have a serious impact on Vietnam's main coffee producing areas, it led to heavy rainfall in many parts of Vietnam, and heavy rainfall led to the influx and high tide of water upstream, a sharp increase in flooding at the source of the Mekong River, and flood warnings in many places in Vietnam.

According to Vietnam's National Hydrometeorological Forecast Center, floods in the upper Mekong River are increasing rapidly, and in the next few days, the water level in the upper Mekong River will continue and rise rapidly as a result of flooding and high tide. Therefore, the forecasting center warns that there are flood risks in low-lying areas, along rivers and outside dams in the lower reaches of the Mekong Delta, and it is necessary to do a good job in the prevention and control of landslides and weak dams.

Vietnam's Southern Irrigation Planning Institute estimates that flooding has increased due to torrential rains caused by Typhoon Capricorn on the Mekong River, which has now spread to Cambodia and Laos, leading to a sharp rise in water levels in recent days. At present, it is very worried that in these downstream areas of Vietnam, crops such as coffee, fruit and rice are mainly grown, and if heavy rains increase, causing torrential rains in the upper reaches and causing floods to flow to the Mekong Delta, southern and western Vietnam will be damaged and productivity will decline, resulting in serious losses.

It is understood that in the southern and western regions of Vietnam, it is the main producing area of Robusta in Vietnam, and the harvest of coffee in Vietnam in the year 2024 is about to begin in October, but it has been suffering from dry weather since the beginning of this year, and the hot drought has been a shortage of water resources. it has had a serious impact on the arrival of coffee in Vietnam during the flowering period, and some coffee plants have withered and their leaves yellowed. In September, Vietnam has suffered two tropical storms in a row, even if the two storms did not have a direct impact on the coffee producing areas, but the heavy rainfall also caused some fruits to be shot down, resulting in a reduction in production, and the coming flood will bring impact and damage to the Robusta coffee grown in low-lying areas, which will continue to reduce production this year.

According to the Bang Mei Shu Coffee Association in Vietnam, extreme weather and reduced acreage have reduced production in Vietnam by about 10% and 15% in the new season. Drought not only leads to a decrease in the yield of fresh coffee fruit, but also may lead to insufficient nutrition of fresh fruit and smaller bean shape, which jointly affects the occurrence of yield reduction.

In addition, according to the latest data from Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and villages, Vietnamese fruit is growing at a steady double-digit rate this year, reaching a new high, especially durian. According to statistics, in the first eight months of 2024, Vietnam's durian exports were close to 1.82 billion US dollars, an increase of 45 percent over the same period last year, and Vietnam's durian export quota is expected to reach 3.5 billion US dollars this year. As durian is more profitable than coffee, in recent years, many farmers have turned to planting durian and avocado, resulting in a decline in the planting area of coffee in Vietnam.

In addition, the tropical storm has had a lot of impact on Vietnam's ports, and the infrastructure of some ports has been seriously damaged, resulting in the complete stagnation of loading and unloading operations, and the goods in some company warehouses have been lost and damaged by typhoons, and a large number of containers have accumulated in the port, making it difficult for goods to get in and out, which is not conducive to the export of goods such as Vietnamese coffee, and there have also been serious incidents such as theft of goods. These incidents have led other traders to reduce their purchases from Vietnam, resulting in a decline in the international influence of Vietnamese production.

International trader Volcafe also said that due to the decline in coffee production in Vietnam, it is expected that the global Robusta coffee supply will continue to be in shortage in 2024 to 25, and will be the fourth consecutive year of shortage. All due to Indonesia, another big country of Robusta, although weather conditions have little impact on coffee production, due to the substantial increase in tourism after the epidemic, the domestic demand for coffee in Indonesia has also increased, resulting in a continuous decline in exportable volume.

According to the Indonesian Coffee exporters Association, production in 2024 is expected to reach 10 million bags in 25, an increase of 14% over last year, but due to the surge in local coffee consumption, the amount available for export is expected to be about 250000 tons, the same as last year, but there is still a downward trend. The news is pushing up the price of Robusta futures, which is now as high as $5311 a tonne, and some experts believe that under all circumstances, prices will remain high until early 2025.

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