Robusta Coffee Falls to Six-Month Low on ICE Futures

The global coffee futures market saw sharp movements on Monday, with Robusta prices hitting a six-and-a-half-month low as Brazil increased its production forecast for the 2014/15 crop. Traders reacted quickly to the news, sending prices downward just days before the Christmas holiday, when trading volumes typically thin out.

Yes, Robusta coffee futures dropped sharply: 3-month Robusta (LRCc2) fell to $1,893 per tonne — its lowest since June 11 — closing down $36, or 1.9%, marking its weakest level in over six months.

Why Robusta Hit a Six-Month Low

The main driver behind the decline in Robusta prices was a revision in Brazil’s official crop estimate. The Brazilian government increased its forecast for the 2014/15 Robusta crop — which was harvested through August — from 45.14 million bags (60kg each) to 45.30 million bags. That may seem like a small change, but in a market this sensitive, it was enough to shift sentiment.

What Happened Across Coffee and Other Commodities

On the same day:

• 3-month Robusta (LRCc2): Fell $36 (1.9%) to $1,893 per tonne — lowest since June 11. It briefly touched $1,890, its weakest since June 11.
• 3-month Arabica (KCc2): Started higher but reversed, closing down 2.55 cents (1.5%) to $1.7215 per pound.
• 3-month raw sugar (SBc1): Closed down 0.12 cents (0.8%) to 14.86 cents per pound.
• 3-month white sugar (LSUc1): Dropped $1.80 (0.5%) to $389.10 per tonne — still above its recent low of $383 set on November 27.

Cocoa Defies the Trend

Unlike coffee, cocoa showed strength. Both London and New York cocoa futures posted gains for the seventh consecutive session, buoyed by technical buying signals and lower arrival numbers from top-producer Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire).

• 3-month London cocoa (LCCH5): Gained £3 (0.2%) to £1,991 per tonne, peaking at £2,000 — its highest since October 24.
• 3-month New York cocoa (CCH5): Rose $6 (0.2%) to $2,986 per tonne.

Market Context: Thin Holiday Trading

Trading activity was subdued as the Christmas holiday approached. Many traders had already squared positions ahead of the break, leading to lower liquidity and exaggerated price moves on relatively small news.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Robusta coffee futures fall so sharply?

Robusta futures dropped because Brazil raised its 2014/15 Robusta production estimate from 45.14 million to 45.30 million 60kg bags. This increase in expected supply led traders to sell off contracts, pushing prices down to a six-and-a-half-month low.

How low did Robusta coffee futures go?

The March Robusta contract (LRCc2) closed at $1,893 per tonne — its lowest level since June 11, 2014. It briefly dipped to $1,890, also a six-month low.

What happened to Arabica coffee prices?

Arabica coffee (3-month KCc2) initially rose but reversed course, closing down 2.55 cents (1.5%) at $1.7215 per pound. It did not hit a multi-month low like Robusta but still declined on the day.

Did sugar and cocoa also drop?

No. Raw sugar (SBc1) fell slightly (0.8%), and white sugar (LSUc1) dropped 0.5%, but both stayed above recent lows. Cocoa, however, rose for the seventh straight day, with London cocoa hitting £2,000 per tonne — a two-month high.

Why were markets so quiet?

Traders were cautious ahead of the Christmas holiday, leading to thinner trading volumes. That often causes bigger price swings on smaller news items, as seen with the Robusta drop.

Recommended FrontStreet Beans for Robusta Insight

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