An introduction to the market price analysis of the reasons affecting the price change of coffee beans

An introduction to the market price analysis of the reasons affecting the price change of coffee beans

Seasonal factors: winter in the northern hemisphere is the biggest consumption season for coffee beans, so prices soar as a result of inequality between supply and demand. In addition, since Brazil has a coffee harvest period from April to August, if any large-scale seasonal climate damage occurs during this period or at other times, it will easily lead to a surge in coffee bean prices. There is usually a high chance of a low price in June-July of each year, and then it will gradually stabilize until it may reach a high in January-February. The global trading volume of coffee beans is second only to crude oil, which is a major trading commodity, and its price rise and fall is more related to the political and economic stability of producing countries, so it has become a global speculative commodity. According to the actuary of the producing country, the price of coffee beans should be more than US $1 per pound before small coffee farmers can recover their profits.Therefore, when coffee beans fall below the US $1 mark, it will cause tension in coffee-producing countries and implement measures to store leftover beans. and it also makes many investors very interested in the sale of coffee beans.

Strikes or rumors among dock workers at major coffee export ports sometimes affect the price of coffee beans, which can lead to an increase in inventory or market expectations. As the major coffee-producing countries are in developing countries, strikes can be heard from time to time, but it is sometimes difficult to tell the true from the false, but unless it is a long-term strike, it will not affect market prices for long. The government policies of the major coffee producing countries are also the focus of the coffee market. From this point of view, the government policies of ─ Brazil, the world's largest coffee bean producer, are more important than those of other countries. When the Brazilian government decides to store most of its coffee beans, it does push up prices in the short term, but it also allows Colombia or other Central American and African producing countries to increase their market share. After all, the power of a country is limited, so the producing countries form the International Coffee Organization (ICO) to set the total amount of coffee exports and the export quotas of each producing country, so as to interfere with the market supply to maintain the price of coffee beans. However, after the middle of 1980, the supply of coffee beans increased, which led to a gap between the originally smooth system. On the one hand, consumers were unwilling to make the cost of obtaining coffee beans high because of human factors. On the other hand, coffee bean producing countries also began not to abide by the export quota agreement because of bumper harvests year after year, and each showed their powers to increase the export volume. On the contrary, the agreement has become an amulet for Huiguo to expand its market share. In the situation where each member State has its own ghosts, after many consultations, it is still unable to work out a new international coffee agreement, so unless the International Coffee Organization can draw up a treaty agreed upon by member States, otherwise, the influence of the International Coffee Organization on the price of coffee beans will be weakening.