The price of Arabica coffee beans may rise by 20% at the end of 2018 due to the severe drought in Brazil, a big coffee bean producer.
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Affected by dry weather in Brazil, a big producer of Arabica coffee beans, and fluctuations in the exchange rate of Brazil's Lille, Arabica coffee futures are expected to jump nearly 21% by the end of the year.
Traders and analysts polled by Reuters expect ICE Arabica coffee futures to rise to $1.30 a pound by the end of the year, up 20.6% from Friday's closing price of $1.0775, but the latest forecast is slightly lower than the $1.3443 a pound polled by Reuters in February.
The survey also shows that the market estimates that Brazil will produce 54.5 million bags of coffee beans (each weighing 60 kilograms) in the 2019 / 2020 season, of which 38 million bags are Arabica beans and 17 million bags are Robusta beans.
The total estimated production of coffee beans in Brazil in the 2019 / 2020 season is expected to be less than the record 60 million bags in the 2018 / 2019 season.
Huckett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors in Florida, said that meteorological research results show that the current dry weather in Brazil will significantly affect the key flowering period from September to November.
Hakitt also said that as the pace of Brazil's presidential election in October approaches, the lira could soar, pushing up the futures price of Arabica coffee beans traded in the United States. Other experts also expect increased volatility in Lille to support Arabica coffee bean futures prices.
Mera, a senior commodities analyst at Rabobank, also said that a trade war may also affect the flow of coffee beans, while another bullish factor for coffee beans is the likely occurrence of the "holy baby phenomenon" this year. Indonesia, the world's fourth largest coffee bean producer, has drier weather than ever before.
Vietnam, the world's second-largest producer of coffee beans, is expected to produce 28.5 million bags in the 2018 / 2019 season, down from a record high of 29.5 million a year ago.
According to data from the World Coffee Research Institute (WCR), it is estimated that global coffee demand will grow by 2% a year by 2050, and production needs to double to meet demand, but due to climate change, the number of areas suitable for growing Arabica coffee beans may be reduced by half by 2050, Bloomberg reported.
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