The reason why Yunnan coffee bean prices fell_2018 Yunnan coffee bean purchase price_Yunnan coffee beans expensive

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Since this year's Yunnan coffee buying season, Yunnan coffee bean prices have continued to fall, and farmers have complained incessantly. To this end, we go deep into the producing area and visit enterprises to find out the reasons for the continuous decline in the price of coffee beans in Yunnan.

1. International coffee futures prices continue to fall

ICE InterContinental Exchange coffee futures is currently the world's largest coffee bean trading and delivery center, which plays a guiding role in the global coffee bean price. The trade price of Yunnan coffee beans is generally discounted by 10% above the standard of coffee futures prices of the ICE Intercontinental Exchange in the United States.

Since July 2017, the ICE Intercontinental Exchange coffee futures index has continued to fall, putting serious pressure on the price of Yunnan coffee beans. Yunnan coffee bean trade can only passively follow the continuous decline in coffee futures prices.

● solution:

1) the domestic Zhengzhou Commodity Futures Exchange will launch coffee futures as soon as possible to help farmers and enterprises choose hedging financial instruments in the financial market and lock in the price and risk of coffee beans in advance.

2) the three major spot coffee exchanges in China should embark on the "right path" as soon as possible, set up a trade platform, realize "deadline linkage", and enrich the choice of farmers and enterprises in the transaction mode.

two。 The market expects a bumper harvest in Brazil this year.

Brazil's national coffee bean production, including the Robusta variety, will grow by 30 per cent to a record high this year, according to Conab, the Brazilian farming forecaster.

Brazil, which accounts for one of the largest coffee bean production in the world, has now been revealed that a 30 per cent increase in coffee bean production this year has undoubtedly added momentum to the global supply of coffee. While there is no significant increase in market demand, the market has reason to be optimistic about the fall in coffee bean prices.

But fortunately, the Brazilian coffee bean picking season will begin in June, and coffee bean prices may have a respite under the guidance of the general "buy expected and sell facts" strategy in the financial markets.

● solution:

1) large quantities of Brazilian commercial beans are the main competitors of Yunnan coffee beans, and the only way to beat them in the market economy is to improve quality and reduce costs, but this strategy may be difficult to achieve in recent years.

2) increase the research and judgment on the supply and demand of coffee beans, and analyze the relationship between market supply and demand in advance in order to make the corresponding market strategy.

3. Starbucks and Nestle have significantly reduced the number of acquisitions in Yunnan this year.

The coffee giants Starbucks and Nestl é bought only 60% of the coffee beans in previous years, according to ID:coffinance sources. Among them, Nestl é has announced that it has completed the number of acquisitions this year, which means it will not buy coffee beans on a large scale in China this year.

The decline in demand from the two coffee giants, which account for half of Yunnan's coffee bean demand, has also virtually caused some panic in Yunnan's coffee bean trade, forcing some farmers who have long supplied Starbucks and Nestl é to dispose of coffee beans to other traders quickly and cheaply. But the short-term, concentrated, large-scale expansion of coffee supply has also led to a crackdown on the purchase price of traders.

● solution:

1) at present, Yunnan coffee farmers and coffee enterprises generally concentrate on planting and primary processing, and market sales are controlled by traders, including Starbucks, Nestl é and local trading enterprises, and the price can only be passively accepted. In the future, we can gradually develop direct customers, increase sales channels and diversify market strategies.

4. The price of commercial beans has fallen, but the fine beans have enough to eat and drink.

In this round of decline in the price of coffee beans in Yunnan, we have also visited some curry farmers and enterprises growing high-quality beans, which said that the impact on their prices is limited.

The main reasons for ● are:

1) the annual output of fine beans is limited, and the market demand is far greater than the supply, which makes the price of fine beans relatively hard.

2) Fine bean farmers and enterprises generally have their own direct customers in the sales channels, which makes the annual sales price relatively stable.

This also reflects from the side that the commercial bean market has abundant supply, poor quality and is more vulnerable to market impact.

● solution:

1) it is hoped that more Yunnan farmers and enterprises will be involved in the cultivation and sale of fine beans in the future. although there may be a risk period of 2-3 years, in the long run, the advantages still outweigh the disadvantages.

Other noise

Noise refers to some factors that may affect the decline in the price of coffee beans, but it does not trigger the decisive factors.

1) the California government has ordered coffee companies such as Starbucks to affix cancer warning labels. Although this is a bit of a mountain out of a molehill to professionals, it is an excellent opportunity to short the price of coffee beans in uninformed consumers and capital markets that are good at seizing opportunities.

2) Sino-US trade war. The Americans are ready to be provocative and the Chinese are ready to respond, so the next person on the stage must be the "conspiracy theorists." They love to use topics to make up stories: when the trade war opens, Americans are bound to reduce demand for Chinese goods, and coffee beans may also be affected.

Finally, ●, we want to ask you two questions.

1) Why didn't we expect the price of coffee beans to fall this time?

2) Why can we only passively accept the price of coffee beans?

Maybe these two are also the difficult problems that our Chinese coffee industry will overcome in the future.

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