Global warming Coffee is coming to an end

Wild coffee tree

Wild coffee is in jeopardy

The study, published in the journal Pl os One of the Public Library of Science, was conducted by the Royal Botanical Gardens and scientists from Ethiopia, led by Alan Davis, a coffee expert at the Royal Botanical Gardens. Davis, who has been studying coffee for more than 15 years, points out that there are 125 kinds of wild coffee, which is not yet to be discovered. However, "We don't know how many varieties there are in such an important crop," he said.

Although the coffee shop is full of variety, in the final analysis, there are only two kinds of artificial coffee, one is Arabica, the other is Robusta, both of which are introduced from wild species.

Arabica has been grown commercially in many countries, but wild Arabica grows only in the highlands of southern Ethiopia and a small number of areas of neighboring South Sudan. In April, Davis and other researchers visited the Boma Plateau in South Sudan to assess coffee production there. What they did not expect is that the living conditions of the wild Arabica are already extremely bad. Davis said that after a week in the forest, they realized that their original intention had changed and that the original scientific expedition had "become a rescue operation".

Previous studies have proved that Arabica is very sensitive to environmental changes and can only survive in a very narrow temperature range.

They generally grow in the upper vegetation of tropical mountains, are already at the edge of the ecosystem, and have nowhere to go once the temperature rises. According to the United Nations Development Program, the annual average temperature in Ethiopia has risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the 1960s.

The published study shows that if global warming continues, then the outlook for Arabica will be "very negative." Even if it is optimistic, 2/3 of the areas suitable for its growth will disappear by 2080; at worst, it will disappear at all. In some parts of South Sudan, extinction could occur as soon as 2020.

In Davis's view, this estimate is conservative because it only takes into account climate change and does not take into account other variables in the region. "our model assumes unspoiled natural vegetation, when in fact the highland forests of Ethiopia and Sudan have been fragmented as a result of deforestation," he and his colleagues wrote in the paper. " In addition, there are other factors that are not truthfully reflected in the study, such as diseases and insect pests, such as changes in flowering, and the decline in the number of birds (birds are responsible for spreading coffee seeds). These factors may cause comprehensive negative effects.

Coffee industry may be hit hard

Arabica is the pillar of the modern coffee industry. As a cup, most of it can be traced back to several plants brought back from Ethiopia in the 17th and 18th centuries. Scientists believe that because of a single source, the genetic diversity of coffee grown in coffee plantations is less than 5% of that of wild coffee, and some say it is less than 1%.

Davis points out that such a narrow gene pool makes artificially grown coffee "very vulnerable".

"Arabica's history is permeated with disease, pest infestation and yield problems. In the face of these problems, farmers always turn to wild species and rely on their genetic diversity to solve them."

Therefore, once the wild species become extinct, the farmed species are so weak that they are simply unable to resist a series of natural enemies, resulting in a decline in the quality of coffee and a surge in prices.

"once you lose these natural resources, you are shooting yourself in the foot because commercial crops may experience unexpected changes in the future, and we have no backup." That's what Davis said.

So, why not drink robusta coffee instead? Indeed, Robusta is more adaptable than Arabica. It can also grow at lower elevations and higher latitudes and is more able to cope with climate warming. In the 19th century, a leaf rust disease wiped out Arabica in Southeast Asia, and people began to grow Robusta. Today, it is mainly used to make coffee with heavy flavors, such as Italian and Turkish coffee.

The problem is that most coffee drinkers cannot change their tastes without saying a word.

Robusta has a strong taste that most people don't like, and it contains twice as much caffeine as Arabica, making it a different drink at all. Therefore, Arabica is still irreplaceable, without it, a large part of the coffee market will cease to exist.

This biological extinction can also lead to economic upheaval: according to the International Coffee Organization, coffee has ranked second in world trade, second only to oil, with about 26 million people employed in the industry.

Among them, Arabica accounts for 70% of the global coffee consumption. This year's output is 48600 tons, with a total wholesale price of about US $16 billion. Once this plant becomes extinct, the blow to the world economy will be immeasurable.

Continue to study and protect

It's surprising: although practitioners in all aspects of the coffee industry are very concerned about the future of coffee, before that, the scientific research on coffee is very limited. The paper on how climate change will affect wild Arabica coffee is the first peer-reviewed study ever and the first computer simulation of wild Arabica. This paper combines field investigation and computer model, and such research will continue in the future.

Davis said the purpose of the study was not to scare the world, but to stimulate their action.

In the paper, he and his colleagues identified several "core areas" in which wild Arabica may survive beyond 2080 and provide genetic support for future coffee cultivation.

Several areas in need of protection were also identified in the study. Davis pointed out that conservation activities have helped other species escape extinction, so he is optimistic about the prospect of wild coffee.

But some researchers are not optimistic about this. Botanist Peter Levin, for example, believes that the goal of protecting wild plants is "commendable", but the surest way is to deposit wild Arabica seeds in a seed bank, even in areas where extinction is not imminent.