November Robusta Futures Jump 21 USD on Brazil Concerns

The coffee market saw sharp moves on Wednesday as traders reacted to fresh supply-side worries — especially for the world’s top coffee producer, Brazil. The latest numbers from London’s futures exchange show just how quickly sentiment can shift on production rumors. If you’ve been watching coffee prices or wondering why your roaster might be adjusting blends, here’s what actually moved the market.

On August 28, November Robusta coffee futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) gained 21 USD, or 1%, closing at 2048 USD per tonne. That same day, December Arabica futures rose to a four-week high, driven by fears that drought may have damaged Brazil’s crop more severely than earlier thought.

What Moved Robusta Futures Up?

LIFFE’s November Robusta contract climbed 21 USD to settle at 2048 USD per tonne. That 1% gain reflects trader responses to broader concerns about global coffee supplies — especially after a major trade house cut its outlook for Brazil’s output.

Why Did Arabica Also Rally?

December Arabica futures on ICE rose 0.70 cent, or 0.4%, to close at 1.9815 USD per pound. During the session, the contract hit a four-week peak of 2.0270 USD per pound. This upward move was driven by speculation that Brazil’s 2015/16 coffee production could be significantly lower than previously forecast.

What’s the Forecast for Brazil’s Crop?

Two industry sources reported that influential trading firm Neumann has revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2015/16 coffee bean production downward. The new projection is 45 million bags (each 60 kg), down from the previous outlook of 47.7 million bags. This reduced expectation reinforces concerns that earlier drought conditions may have caused long-term damage to Brazilian coffee trees.

What About Other Commodities?

In related commodity moves, LIFFE’s October white sugar futures fell 2.40 USD, or 0.6%, to 426.30 USD per tonne. Meanwhile, LIFFE’s December cocoa futures dropped 12 GBP, or 0.6%, closing at 2024 GBP per tonne, after initially spiking to their highest level since May 2011 in the opening minute of trading.

How Are These Moves Relevant to Coffee Buyers?

Futures prices influence the cost of green coffee for roasters worldwide, and shifts in key contracts like November Robusta or December Arabica often signal coming changes in blend composition, pricing, and availability. For specialty roasters and importers, these moves help anticipate market stress and adjust purchasing strategies ahead of potential supply tightness.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did November Robusta coffee futures rise 21 USD?

November Robusta futures on LIFFE rose 21 USD, or 1%, to close at 2048 USD per tonne on August 28, reflecting market reactions to concerns about global coffee supply, particularly from Brazil.

What was the new Brazil coffee production forecast from Neumann?

Neumann, a major trade house, lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2015/16 coffee bean production to 45 million bags (60 kg each), down from the previous estimate of 47.7 million bags, citing possible long-term drought damage.

How high did December Arabica futures go during the trading session?

December Arabica futures rose to a four-week high of 2.0270 USD per pound during trading, before settling at 1.9815 USD per pound, up 0.70 cent or 0.4% for the day.

Did other commodities also see price moves that day?

Yes, LIFFE’s October white sugar futures dropped 2.40 USD to 426.30 USD per tonne, and December cocoa futures fell 12 GBP to 2024 GBP per tonne after hitting a 2011 high earlier in the session.

Why do futures prices matter to coffee roasters and drinkers?

Futures prices impact the cost and availability of green coffee, influencing roast blends, pricing strategies, and potential supply constraints for both commercial and specialty roasters.

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