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USDA forecasts future coffee production in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam

Published: 2026-01-17 Author:

Last Updated: 2026/01/17, Recently, the United States Department of Agriculture announced the annual coffee production of Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam in 2023. Due to the global weather changes affected by the El Ni ñ o phenomenon, there are good and bad for coffee producing countries, and the output will change in the future. According to a report by the Brazilian Office of Agricultural Affairs,

Recently, the United States Department of Agriculture announced the annual coffee production of Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam in 2023. Due to the global weather changes affected by the El Ni ñ o phenomenon, there are good and bad for coffee producing countries, and the output will change in the future.

Brazil

According to a report from the Brazilian Office of Agricultural Affairs, Robusta production is expected to decline, with Brazilian coffee production falling to 66.3 million bags (60 kg / bag) in the 2023 Universe 24 (July-June) marketing year.

Due to the increase in acreage and production, according to the forecast, Arabica increased by 12.8% compared with the previous season, with an estimated production of 44.9 million bags. Robusta's production is expected to be 2140 bags, 1.4 per cent lower than previous estimates and 6.1 per cent lower than the previous season. As a result, the total export value of coffee beans from 2023gam24 (July to June) is estimated at 43.9 million bags of 60 kg / bag, down from 45.4 million bags of 60 kg / bag before. As the stock market price was lower than attractive, the coffee trade flow at the beginning of this year was lower than expected. So exports in 2023 / 24 are expected to be 22.3% higher than those in 2022.

Colombia

Due to the improvement in climate and sunshine caused by El Ni ñ o, which is good for Colombia, coffee production will return to 11.5 million bags of 60 kg / bag, with low rainfall and fertilizer rates. Coffee production in 2023 for 24 years has been revised to 10.7 million bags of 60 kg / bag.

In view of the expected higher production, coffee exports in 2023 / 24 are estimated at 12 million bags and 60 kg per bag. In contrast, in order to meet local demand, Colombia will import about 2.5 million bags of 60 kg / bag of coffee, mainly from Brazil, due to high inventory and price competitiveness.

Viet Nam

According to the Hanoi Office of Agricultural Affairs, due to adverse weather conditions caused by climate change and El Ni ñ o, coffee production in Viet Nam 2023 Compact 24 decreased by 3.8 million bags, to 27.5 million bags.

In addition, the survival rate of coffee cherries is low due to adverse weather conditions, and some farmers turn to other fruit trees that are more profitable. Coffee production is expected to fall to 27.2 million bags equivalent of 60 kg / bag in 2022 / 23, and coffee exports are expected to be 25 million bags of 60 kg / bag in 2023 / 24, based on the decline in stocks.

In summary, due to the impact of El Ni ñ o, the USDA expects coffee production to decline in Brazil and Vietnam in the future, while coffee production in Colombia will increase.

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