Brazil Coffee Output to Drop 50% in 2015, Says Major Co-op

When Brazilian farmers saw branches wither and cherries fail to form in early 2015, many feared the worst—and they were right. For thousands of smallholders in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the season brought an unexpected collapse in yields, driven by forces beyond their control.

The answer is clear: COCAPEC, Brazil’s third-largest coffee cooperative, predicted its members’ 2015 output would plunge to around 1 million bags (60,000 metric tons)—exactly half the 2 million bags (120,000 metric tons) harvested in 2014.

Why COCAPEC Predicted a 50% Production Drop

COCAPEC, representing 2,200 coffee-growing families, pointed to two key factors: an extreme drought and the industry’s natural “off-year” in the biennial yield cycle. Every two years, coffee trees alternate between high-output (on-year) and low-output (off-year) cycles, and 2015 happened to be an off-year for many farms.

But this wasn’t a normal off-year. The region had suffered severe drought, which further stunted branch growth and reduced cherry development. The combination of these stressors led to a dramatic drop in harvested coffee.

Where the Decline Is Concentrated

COCAPEC’s member farms are primarily located in the area between São Paulo and Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s most traditional coffee-growing regions. These farms have faced worsening water shortages since the previous year, which damaged tree canopies and limited fruit set.

The cooperative also noted that its region experiences more pronounced biennial yield variation than other parts of Brazil. That means the 50% drop seen at COCAPEC isn’t necessarily representative of national averages.

Brazil’s National Coffee Forecast for 2015

To put the co-op’s numbers in context, Brazil—the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter—harvested approximately 45.3 million bags (2.718 million metric tons) in 2014. For 2015, the Brazilian Coffee Council projected a nationwide output between 40.3 million and 43.3 million bags (2.418–2.598 million metric tons).

COCAPEC’s projection, while extreme for its own members, fits within the broader national trend of reduced production. The country’s overall output was expected to decline, but not by as steep a margin as the 50% drop seen in this specific cooperative.

What a Biennial Yield Cycle Means for Coffee Farmers

The biennial yield cycle is a well-known phenomenon in coffee cultivation. In on-years, trees produce abundant cherries, often at the expense of stored nutrients. The following off-year sees a natural drop in yield as the tree recuperates.

For most farms, this cycle results in modest fluctuations. However, external stresses like drought can amplify the difference, turning a normal off-year into a crisis. COCAPEC’s experience in 2015 highlights how environmental factors can intensify these inherent cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Brazilian coffee cooperative predicted a 50% production drop for 2015?

COCAPEC, Brazil’s third-largest coffee cooperative, forecast that its members’ coffee production would fall by 50% in 2015. The co-op represents 2,200 farming families.

How much coffee did COCAPEC members produce in 2014 versus 2015?

In 2014, COCAPEC members harvested around 2 million bags (120,000 metric tons) of coffee. In 2015, production was predicted to drop to approximately 1 million bags (60,000 metric tons)—a 50% decline.

What caused the drop in coffee production for COCAPEC in 2015?

The 50% drop was caused by a combination of severe drought and the biennial yield cycle (off-year). Drought stressed the trees, while the natural alternating low-yield year further reduced output.

How does COCAPEC’s production compare to Brazil’s national coffee output?

COCAPEC’s projected 2015 output of 1 million bags is much lower than its 2014 level, but Brazil’s national production for 2015 was forecast by the Brazilian Coffee Council to be between 40.3 million and 43.3 million bags—still a national decline, but less extreme than COCAPEC’s 50% drop.

Does every Brazilian coffee region experience the same biennial yield variation?

No. COCAPEC stated that the biennial yield variation is much more pronounced in its region (between São Paulo and Minas Gerais) than in other parts of Brazil. Therefore, the 50% drop at COCAPEC isn’t a reliable indicator for all Brazilian coffee producers.

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