Brazil Coffee Output Set for Third Straight Drop

When extreme weather—torrential rains in July followed by severe drought in August—hit Brazil’s coffee farms, growers weren’t just facing a bad season. They were staring down the possibility of the country’s first three-year consecutive drop in coffee output since 1965, a crisis with global ripple effects.

Brazil’s coffee production is projected to fall 18% to 40.1 million 60kg bags after this month’s harvest, following a 3.1% decline last year. With no relief in sight for the Southern Hemisphere spring, 2025 could see output dip below 40 million bags, marking the longest stretch of declining yields in 50 years.

What’s Driving Brazil’s Coffee Crisis?

The world’s largest Arabica coffee supplier is grappling with erratic weather that’s devastating its coffee plants. After heavy rainfall in July damaged blossoms and young fruit, August brought intense drought that stunted growth and reduced yields. These conditions are particularly damaging in Brazil, where much of the coffee is grown on flat, low-altitude land without the microclimates or shade typical of higher-altitude regions.

How Bad Is the Damage So Far?

This year’s harvest is expected to yield just 40.1 million 60kg bags, an 18% drop from the previous year. That follows a 3.1% decline in 2023. The Brazilian National Coffee Council warns that without improved weather, 2025’s output could fall below 40 million bags—something not seen in decades. Brazil accounted for 36% of global coffee supply last year, making its shortfalls critical for worldwide markets.

What’s Happening with Coffee Futures?

As supply tightens, international coffee futures have surged. Arabica coffee futures on ICE have risen 77% to $1.9545 per pound so far in 2024. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict prices could climb another 15% by year-end, potentially reaching $2.25 per pound. “Given Brazil’s issues, the market is highly sensitive to any signs of further weather drama,” said Donald Selkin, National Securities’ chief market strategist.

How Will This Impact Coffee Prices for Consumers?

Rising futures are already pushing up the cost of unroasted beans, and retailers are feeling the pressure. Companies that rely on large coffee volumes—including major chains like Starbucks and J.M. Smucker—have already raised retail prices. Keurig Green Mountain also increased prices earlier this month. As green coffee costs climb, expect more price hikes on store shelves and café menus.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is Brazil’s coffee production expected to drop this year?

Brazil’s coffee production is forecast to fall 18% to 40.1 million 60kg bags after the current harvest, following a 3.1% decline in 2023.

Could Brazil’s coffee output fall for three years in a row?

Yes. With output already down in 2023 and 2024, the Brazilian National Coffee Council warns that 2025 could see production drop below 40 million bags, marking the first three-year consecutive decline since 1965.

Why is Brazil’s coffee harvest being affected?

Unusual weather—including heavy July rains and severe August drought—has damaged coffee plants, reducing both flower and fruit development and lowering overall yields.

How are coffee futures reacting to the shortfall?

Arabica coffee futures on ICE have surged 77% to $1.9545 per pound in 2024. Analysts predict prices could rise another 15% by year-end, possibly hitting $2.25 per pound.

Will consumers see higher coffee prices because of this?

Yes. The increase in green coffee futures is raising costs for unroasted beans, and companies like Starbucks, J.M. Smucker, and Keurig Green Mountain have already raised retail prices.

Recommended FrontStreet Beans from Brazil

For a true taste of Brazil’s resilient coffee profile, try FrontStreet’s Brazil Queen Manor—a high-altitude Yellow Bourbon from the rare Moji Guaçu region. It offers creamy, nutty, and toasty notes with low acidity and a smooth finish, ideal for pour-over or espresso. Also consider the Brazilian component in the Black Cocoa Blend, which brings body and balance to espresso drinks, and the classic Brazilian inclusion in FrontStreet’s Specialty Blends, valued for its round, chocolatey richness. Freshly roasted within 5 days · Orders placed before 17:00 ship the same day · Next-day delivery across most of Guangdong Province.