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Coffee harvest is a mixture of joys and sorrows.

Published: 2026-01-18 Author: World Gafei

Last Updated: 2026/01/18, Most of the major coffee-producing countries have a bumper harvest, which is supposed to be a blessing for coffee consumers around the world, but some people are happy and others are sad: there is nothing happiest than coffee retailers (because of the sharp reduction in costs.) and coffee lovers (retail prices are expected to fall, the market choice is flat and beautiful); but the biggest worry is of course a large number of coffee farmers (because prices have plummeted, even lower than the cost).

The fall in the price of coffee is not recent. In fact, the price of ICE coffee futures has been falling over the past five years. This year's coffee harvest is approaching, the world's major coffee-producing countries generally expect a bumper harvest, the oversupply situation is believed to be further out of balance, coffee prices can be said to be even worse.

Apart from the bumper harvest in Brazil and Vietnam, Colombia has made a strong comeback. In recent years, an outbreak of a virus in coffee trees in Central and South America has seriously affected the quality and yield of coffee beans. Colombia, which is rich in Arabica coffee beans (mainly used in Espresso and Cappucino), is the worst-hit area. After years of efforts by the local government, 40% of the coffee trees in Colombia have been replanted and are now beginning to harvest.

Experts estimate that Colombia's total harvest this year is about 8.5 million bags, an increase of 20% over last year, and next year is expected to increase to 9.5 million to 10 million bags. According to Volcafe, a Swiss coffee trader, the global coffee glut is expected to continue next year. After the surplus of 800000 bags in 2011 12 to 7.4 million in 2012, it is estimated that there is still a surplus of 2 million to 3 million bags in 2013. Although the oversupply is expected to ease next year, it is believed that coffee prices will remain under pressure for some time. The most direct consequence of a bumper harvest is that the prices of agricultural products have not been raised for a long time. In Brazil, for example, coffee beans are produced at a cost of about US $1.20 per pound by local coffee farmers, and US $1.40 to US $1.50 per pound in Colombia and other Central American countries. However, the futures price of ICE coffee has fallen to only US $1.05 per pound. Each of the farmers complained bitterly, hoping that the government would intervene in the market to buy back or provide direct subsidies.

Some experts estimate that the bumper harvest of coffee beans will last for another year to one and a half years, and it is believed that coffee futures prices in the first quarter of next year may fall below the level of US $1 per pound. While it is true that brown farmers do not enjoy the benefits of a bumper harvest, they will benefit coffee retailers like Starbucks.

Some analysts estimate that Starbucks' operating profit margin has a chance to increase by two percentage points as a result of this bumper harvest. However, some experts have begun to worry that after a bumper harvest has led to a sharp drop in coffee prices, brown farmers may deliberately reduce their care of coffee trees in the hope that reduced production will boost prices. However, the chances of loss of harvest in the future will be greatly increased. At that time, coffee prices may rebound sharply, hitting the global coffee retail industry.