Somalia expelled Ethiopian diplomats! Coffee export problem is serious

According to Ethiopian media reports, relations between Ethiopia and neighboring Somalia continue to deteriorate. Recently, the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation expelled Mr. Ali Mohamed Adan, Ethiopia's second Counsellor in Somalia, and declared him unpopular.

It is reported that the Somali authorities said that the diplomat's actions were inconsistent with his duties, and mentioned in the statement that the diplomat had violated articles 41 and 42 of the Vienna Convention on Foreign Relations. These regulations require diplomats to respect the laws of the host country and to avoid interfering in and participating in their internal affairs, so the Ethiopian diplomat was ordered to leave within 72 hours.

This is not the first time Somalia has expelled Ethiopian diplomats. As early as April this year, the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement confirming that the Ethiopian ambassador will leave Somalia within 72 hours. In addition, it was also said that the Somali ambassador to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, had been recalled to Somalia for comprehensive consultations.

At present, relations between Somalia and Ethiopia continue to deteriorate. The reason is that in January this year, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland (one of the autonomous regions of the Federal Republic of Somaliland, which declared itself "independent" but has not been internationally recognized). In exchange for the lease of the port of Berbera in the Gulf of Aden in exchange for Ethiopia's recognition of Somaliland as an independent country in the international community.

The Somali Government is dissatisfied with the signing of the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland as a violation of Somali national sovereignty. As a result, since January, the Somali Government has taken a series of measures to put pressure on Ethiopia and put the country at a disadvantage.

During this period, Somalia cooperated with Eritrea and Egypt, which recently delivered two batches of military assistance to Somalia, including heavy artillery, anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles, strengthening Somalia's "capacity to protect its land and sea borders". In response the ammunition and these weapons provided by external forces by Ethiopia could further aggravate the fragile security situation in the region.

Due to the deterioration of relations between the two countries, Ethiopia has not yet obtained the port of Berbera in Somaliland in the memorandum of understanding, while the ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo in southern Somalia cannot be used, so they can only continue to rely on the port of Djibouti to provide import and export business for Ethiopia.

However, the port of Djibouti, located at the southern entrance of the Red Sea, has been affected by the Red Sea crisis recently. Since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October last year, the Houthi have continuously launched attacks on foreign merchant ships passing through the Red Sea in order to pressure Israel to stop its military operations, and have so far attacked more than 180 ships. As a result, shipping companies and vessels have no choice but to detour and suspend vessels in the region, resulting in a reduction in the throughput of the port of Djibouti, hampering the export and import of major commodities such as Ethiopian coffee.

However, recently, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abby said in parliament that Ethiopia should enter the Red Sea according to any law and the experience of any country, which is in the national interest, but Ethiopia will not seek this goal through war or force.

In addition, it also talked about the relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia, saying that the two sides are brothers, and Ethiopia does not have an agenda for Somalia. He also said that Somalia has time to "rethink and give priority" to its national interests, Ethiopia will "wait patiently", Ethiopia will not go to war with anyone, and Ethiopia has no interest in war.

Exports and cost are the biggest problems for Ethiopia's coffee industry at present. due to the continuous deterioration of relations with neighboring countries, the new seaports not available to Ethiopia can only continue to rely on two ports in Djibouti, but imports and exports continue to be hindered by the impact of the Red Sea crisis. And imports have been blocked, exacerbating the rise in the prices of some imports from Ethiopia.

At the same time, with the arrival of the shipping season and the surge in shipments in the second half of the year, shipping companies will raise prices, resulting in higher freight rates and increased shipping costs. And Ethiopia's previous new fiscal rules have led to the continued depreciation of the Ethiopian currency Bill's exchange rate, so local prices have only risen, leading to rising coffee cultivation costs. At present, the price of coffee from Ethiopia coffee beans has been raised by 0.5%. In addition, EU buyers have slowed their purchases of Ethiopian coffee beans as EU EUDR has been postponed. To sum up, various circumstances may lead to a further rise in the price of Ethiopian coffee.

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