Indonesia’s Coffee Exports Fall to 2-Year Low

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest coffee producers, is set to see its coffee bean exports plunge to a two-year low. The sharp decline is driven by both increased domestic consumption and a weaker-than-usual harvest. The shift has implications not only for global supply chains but also for international coffee pricing—especially for instant coffee producers like Nestlé and Kraft.

According to Bloomberg, Indonesia’s coffee exports could fall by 14.4 million 60kg bags (143,850 metric tonnes) compared to the previous year, based on a median estimate from seven exporters and one processor. That’s the lowest level since at least 2011.

Why Are Indonesia’s Coffee Exports Declining?

Two major factors are behind the drop: lower coffee production and higher domestic demand. Heavy rainfall has disrupted the harvest, particularly in key growing regions. Meanwhile, local coffee processors are buying more beans than in previous years, driving up competition for exportable supply.

How Much Less Coffee Is Being Harvested?

The Indonesian Central Statistics Agency reports that the country’s coffee harvest could fall by 10.6 million bags (992,000 metric tonnes). That reduced crop, combined with strong local buying, leaves far fewer beans available for export.

Rising Domestic Demand for Coffee Beans

Local coffee processors in Indonesia are increasingly competing for the limited coffee supply. According to Sumita, head of the Lampung branch of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industry Association, processors are paying around 21,000 Indonesian rupiah per metric tonne (about US$2,109)—significantly more than the 19,000 rupiah (roughly US$1,909) offered by exporters. This premium reflects stronger domestic demand and tighter supplies.

Impact on Global Coffee Pricing

With fewer Indonesian beans entering the global market, pressure on prices—especially for instant coffee products—may ease. Global coffee futures have already seen declines: London robusta futures dropped 11% last year, and arabica prices have fallen 17% since March 2023, when they hit a five-month high.

What’s Happening at the Ports?

Sumita also noted that coffee shipments from Lampung warehouses have slowed. In the third week of May, daily arrivals at the port were just 800 metric tonnes—down from over 1,000 tonnes during the same period last year. This slowdown further tightens the availability of beans for export.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are Indonesia’s coffee exports expected to drop this year?

Indonesia’s coffee exports are projected to fall by 14.4 million 60kg bags (143,850 metric tonnes), a decline of around 14 million bags year-on-year, according to a Bloomberg survey of exporters and processors.

Why is Indonesia’s coffee harvest down?

The harvest is expected to decrease by 10.6 million bags (992,000 metric tonnes) due to heavy rainfall and other weather-related disruptions affecting coffee farms, especially in key regions like Lampung.

Are domestic buyers paying more for coffee beans than exporters?

Yes. Local coffee processors in Indonesia are offering around 21,000 Indonesian rupiah per metric tonne for beans, compared to exporters’ offers of about 19,000 rupiah, reflecting higher domestic demand.

How does this affect global coffee prices?

With fewer Indonesian beans available for export, global supply tightens slightly, which may reduce downward pressure on coffee futures—particularly for instant coffee producers who rely on Indonesian robusta.

What regions in Indonesia produce the most coffee?

Sumatra, especially areas like Lake Toba’s Lintong region and Gayo Highlands in Aceh, are among Indonesia’s most important coffee-growing regions, known for producing Mandheling coffees using unique wet-hulled processing.

Recommended FrontStreet Mandheling Coffees

For drinkers exploring Indonesian coffee, FrontStreet’s Lintong Mandheling delivers spicy, black chocolate, and caramel notes with a sweet finish—perfect for experiencing classic Sumatran profiles. For a more refined cup, try the PWN Golden Mandheling, which offers roasted toast, pine, caramel, and cocoa layers with deep, lasting sweetness. Both beans highlight Indonesia’s signature wet-hulling process and are ideal for filter or French press. Freshly roasted within 5 days · Orders placed before 17:00 ship the same day · Next-day delivery across most of Guangdong Province.