Indonesia's coffee bean exports will drop sharply to a two-year low, domestic demand will increase and rainfall will affect the harvest.
The number of coffee beans exported from Indonesia will fall sharply to its lowest level in two years, mainly due to increased purchases by domestic coffee bean processors and falling harvests due to rain.
According to the median estimate of seven coffee exporters and one processor surveyed by Bloomberg, the country's coffee bean exports may fall by 14% to 135% compared with a year ago; 385000 metric tons (6.42 million bags).
According to data provided by Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics (Central Statistics Agency), coffee bean exports reached the lowest level in the previous (2011) years.
The survey also shows that the yield of coffee beans may fall by 10 million million 135; 595000 metric tons (9.92 million bags). The decline in the number of coffee beans shipped from Indonesia may also slow the decline in the price of soluble drinks used in Nestle SA (NESN-CH) and Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT-US).
Due to the sharp increase in supply in Vietnam and Brazil, coffee bean futures prices have fallen 17 percent since hitting a five-month high in March this year (2013).
The price of robusta coffee futures in London, England, also fell by 11 percent, 128 percent, 130 percent last year.
Sumita, president of the Lampung branch of the Indonesian Coffee exporters' Association (Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industry), said: "the output will decline due to the weather. After a bumper harvest in the last (2012) year, the output will also decline this year. "
The demand for coffee beans from local processors in Indonesia is also increasing.
Sumita pointed out that the price offered by local processors for coffee beans was 21000 Indonesian rupiah (US $2109 per metric ton), which was higher than the coffee bean exporters' price of about 19000 rupiah.
In addition, rainfall also affected shipments to the Lampung coffee bean warehouse, increasing the premium over international prices.
Sumita said daily coffee bean arrivals in the third week of last May were only 800m tonnes, down from more than 1000 tonnes a year ago.
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