Brazil's coffee exports are expected to break records! Global acceleration of coffee sales

Currently, Brazil has begun harvesting coffee beans from the new season, especially Robusta coffee beans.

According to data, so far, the coffee harvest progress of Robusta, Brazil has reached 15% of the coffee production in the new season, which is higher than the harvest progress of 12% in the same period last year. The harvest progress of Arabica coffee is 11%, which is higher than the harvest progress of 7% in the same period last year. Due to the acceleration of the harvest progress, it can help alleviate the current supply shortage in the coffee market.

In addition, due to tight global coffee supply, production cuts in Vietnam, and the Red Sea crisis extended logistics time and costs between Eurasian routes, market demand for Brazilian coffee has increased significantly, while Brazilian coffee exports have increased.

According to local Brazilian coffee exporters and the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil's coffee exports in 2023/24 are expected to reach 46.3 million bags (60 kilograms/bag), a record high. It also believes that Brazil's volume can fill the gap caused by reduced supply from countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia.

According to Cecafé, during the 2023/24 harvest season, Brazil's coffee exports as of April were 39.3 million bags. However, in May and June, as prices rose, local Brazilian farms and traders further accelerated the sale of coffee beans, so it is expected to break the record.

In addition, the acceleration of the harvest is also due to concerns about future weather, because according to reports from the local Brazilian meteorological department, cold air will sweep across Brazil and there is a possibility of frost. Coffee farmers speed up harvesting to avoid frost damage to coffee plants and reduce production as much as possible.

At present, the polar air mass has arrived in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil and is moving towards the central and western regions. For higher altitude areas in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, the lowest temperature can reach minus 1°C-minus 2°C, and frost may occur.

In addition to Brazil, many coffee-producing countries are also accelerating their coffee exports. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), many countries will increase their coffee exports in the recent period because traders are trying to avoid possible problems after the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) comes into effect in December. The ICO said coffee stocks in producing countries will fall as importers rush to ship coffee beans to European countries.

In March this year, the European Union announced plans to delay the implementation of the No Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), classify it into risk categories by country and provide more adaptation time by category.

However, the EU official has not yet issued an updated detailed explanation from the EUDR. Therefore, traders are worried that uncertainties will emerge and accelerate coffee exports. Therefore, some industry insiders said that if coffee exports increase, coffee bean prices will have a downward trend. After all, the EU is still the world's largest coffee market, and major coffee countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia will still cooperate with the EU.