Coffee: When will our customer base surge?

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Here is a summary of my conjecture.

And I think it's not just coffee.

Talk about the college entrance examination.

In 2000, the number of students in the college entrance examination was 3.75 million. Since then, the number has increased by 500,000 to 600,000 each year.

In 2008, in the year of my college entrance examination, the number of students in the national college entrance examination was the highest in history, reaching 10.5 million, and then dropped year by year.

After 2010, the number of college entrance exams has stabilized at around 9.3 million in the past ten years.

Coincidentally, house prices in the country have been soaring since 2000.

If you think about it, does the surge in house prices have anything to do with China's closely watched generation-the "post-80s" and "one-child generation"?

Since 2000, the post-80s generation has gradually entered the society. According to statistics, the number of people entering society will increase by nearly one million every year in the next ten years. With the convenience of transportation and the choice of living conditions, many young people prefer to flock to big cities. This should also be one of the factors contributing to the rise in house prices.

Of course, I'm not an economist, and I don't have a lot of data to prove the above causality. But in history, there have been such incidents.

Baby boomers

After World War II, countries around the world recuperated, and the total population of the world increased rapidly. From 1949 to 1964, more than 7590 million babies were born in the United States, accounting for about 1/3 of the current population of the United States, which is called the "baby boom."

If we set up a baby industry in 1949, it would mean that there will be a large number of newborns every year for the next 15 years, which is undoubtedly a huge market.

Back to coffee.

Coffee is a beverage with no consumption basis in China. According to the actual data that can be understood, there are very few physical operations supported by coffee sales.

Objectively speaking, the customer group of coffee is still limited by class groups, in other words, the possibility of making sanitation workers and factory workers become loyal coffee consumers is extremely low. The city's white-collar workers and literary creators are the largest group of coffee customers.

In my customer group, there is a kind of young people in their early 20s, more of whom are college students. This group is used to working and socializing in cafes, and has a high curiosity and acceptance of new things, which makes it easier for them to spread our definition of coffee taste.

If Starbucks and Nestl é have changed a group of post-75 people. Then after 95, it should be a market where boutique coffee can focus.

So, by linking today's conclusions, we can draw the following inference:

Our fan group time window is about 20 years old, more accurately, it should be a group of college students.

When they graduate, they will become a new force in society.

And in the next decade or so, because of the large number of people, like the "baby boom".

Columnist: Beijing sir

Introduction: you may not like coffee, but don't laugh at people who are crazy about it.