Ethiopia's coffee exports reached 250,000 tons in May! But civil war will affect future coffee exports

Recently, the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) released Ethiopian coffee exports in May. According to reports, Ethiopian coffee exported 43,481.02 tons in May, exceeding the target by 105%. In addition, strong exports drove revenue growth, generating US$209.54 million, exceeding 107% of planned revenue. Compared with exports in the past two fiscal years, the May data improved.

In the first 11 months of the fiscal year (starting in July 2023), Ethiopia's cumulative coffee exports were 252,466.98 tons and its foreign exchange income was 1.208 billion US dollars. In the previous fiscal year, Ethiopia exported about 240,000 tons of coffee and earned US$1.3 billion in foreign exchange earnings. ECTA said that this fiscal year is expected to be higher than the previous fiscal year's revenue of US$1.3 billion and break the record.

In Ethiopia, the main export destination for coffee is Saudi Arabia, followed by South Korea and the United States. The remaining top ten major destinations include Germany, Japan, Belgium, China, Sudan, United Arab Emirates and Italy. Moreover, China's coffee imports to Ethiopia are constantly growing, with a total import volume of 154,000 tons of coffee in 2023. The top five importing partners are Brazil, Ethiopia, Colombia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Ethiopia ranking second.

Regarding the current export situation, the Director of the ECTA Authority thanked all stakeholders in the industry for their contributions and was optimistic that continued efforts and cooperation will achieve better results in the future.

However, some industry insiders are not optimistic. The main reason is that Ethiopia is still in civil war. As early as August 2023, the Fano forces in Amhara Region launched a conflict with the federal government. The conflict has not been resolved and continues to this day.

According to local media reports, the Ethiopian government deployed as many as 90000 civilian recruits to the Amhara region on May 30 this year. Sources said that the Ethiopian government plans to carry out extensive military operations in the region in the next ten days., eliminate the Fano troops in the region within two weeks.

However, Ethiopia is a landlocked country, and its exports and imports rely on the ports of neighboring Djibouti. Ethiopia's export and import transportation routes are on the edge of the military operation zone. The route to the port is a high-risk area that may be affected, and due to the war, some areas will block the route. This will seriously affect the country's transportation industry and the reduction of imports and exports will greatly affect the country's economy. Even if they arrive at the port, they are also affected by the surrounding Red Sea crisis in terms of shipping, which restricts the use of ships for coffee exports.

In addition, after the end of this military operation, it is unknown what will happen, the damage to regional roads, and subsequent political changes. Therefore, it is not optimistic about the future coffee export situation, and local practitioners have lost most of their enthusiasm.