Demand Analysis of Chinese Coffee Industry in 2014

Although the surge in prices has boosted market confidence, China's coffee production fell to less than 60, 000 tonnes in the 2013-2014 season, down from 80, 000 tonnes in the previous season. In the absence of large coffee leading enterprises and local brands, the pressure to cut production has made it more urgent for China's coffee industry to "break through" from raw material producing areas.

According to the survey and statistics of the researchers of the China Industrial Insight Network, the coffee planting area in Yunnan has grown from more than 300,000 mu in 2008 to more than 1.4 million mu at present, and the output has increased from about 30,000 tons to more than 80,000 tons in 2013, accounting for more than 99% of China's coffee planting area and output. It is the largest coffee producing area in China.

Coffee industry insiders, throughout the past 20 years in Yunnan coffee price trend, almost every 10 years a price cycle. In 2010, the price of coffee in Yunnan reached 41 yuan per kilogram, a record high. From 2012 to early 2014, affected by the decline in international coffee futures prices, the price was once as low as 13 yuan per kilogram, and the coffee planting industry entered the "price winter" for two consecutive years.

At the end of January 2014, with the recovery of international coffee futures prices, Yunnan coffee prices also rose rapidly. "this past February, international coffee prices rose the most in 20 years, from 114 cents per pound on January 28 to 180 cents per pound on February 28." Li Gongqin, secretary general of Yunnan Coffee Industry Association, said.

There are probably three reasons for the rapid rise in coffee prices: first, the dry climate in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, since the end of last year, which is expected to affect coffee production; second, some coffee producing countries in Central and South America are affected by coffee rust, coffee production is expected to decrease; third, coffee futures are in the doldrums for a long time, and coffee futures speculators deliberately drive up coffee prices and activate the coffee futures market.

At the same time, the international demand for coffee is still growing, while China's domestic market is in strong demand. Huang Jiaxiong, a researcher at the Tropical and Subtropical Economic crops Research Institute of the Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: "at present, domestic coffee bean demand is growing by 25% a year, and coffee bean imports exceed exports."

"the shortage of coffee makes it inevitable that the price of coffee will rise." Li Gongqin said.

"Coffee harvest is coming to an end this year, but the province's coffee output is still less than 60,000 tons. Pu'er coffee production has also dropped by at least 30% on the basis of last year. " Li Gongqin said that despite the surge in purchase prices, the sharp decline in coffee production has cast a shadow over China's coffee industry.

In recent years, Nestl é and Starbucks have stepped up efforts to open up raw material producing areas in Yunnan, and Yunnan small-grain coffee has also been sold to Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and more than 20 countries and regions, but on the whole, Yunnan coffee industry is still in its infancy, and the "breakthrough" of the industry is not optimistic.

At present, there is a lack of large-scale comprehensive leading enterprises in China's coffee processing industry, and local coffee brands are few, which do not play a leading role in market share and market evaluation at home and abroad.