In the new year, I'd like to borrow money to open a cafe. Is it feasible?

On Wechat last night, a guest I had never met left a message like this: "I like coffee very much. Do you think it is feasible for me to open a coffee shop with a mortgage?"

It got me lost in thought.

I couldn't solve the problem with one or two beautiful words, so I sorted out this article and hoped that the like-minded friends would finish reading it patiently.

About Industry & Dream

Just like our consistent optimism about coffee, big data told us that the industry will be good and is entering the stage of letting a hundred flowers blossom: first-and second-tier cities find characteristics in saturation and competition, and third-and fourth-tier cities take the lead in being brands in the trend. the market is open, even in the reception hall of the start-up park, the corner of the library, the second floor of the bakery, and the stalls in the supermarket. Coffee can be seen everywhere.

This industry carries too many dreams, but in front of reality, we need to be a calm businessman.

How big is the pressure of the loan to open a store?

The amount of money needed to start a coffee shop is not a small sum. Last year, a shop with a friend of about 100 square meters had the simplest current account: rent 100000, equipment 50, 000, decoration 120000, opening materials, network, marketing and all miscellaneous 30, 000. Although the above expenses are only a microcosm of the case, at the current price level, 300000 of the liquidity needed for operation after opening a store is an indispensable investment.

Taking 300000 as an example, let's take a look at the initial operating pressure:

The annual interest rate of the loan is 300000, which is equivalent to about 9500 yuan per month with principal and interest. All business friends understand that this algorithm is "too optimistic". My commonly used "pessimistic algorithm" is calculated according to the number of effective operating days in a year. If the cost with interest is reduced to 300 days, the daily cost is about 380 yuan.

This means that the daily profit should be at least nearly 400 yuan without counting the rent, recruiting staff, paying no property fees, spending no money on water and electricity, and no daily expenses.

According to the normal business model, calculate the rent, staff, materials and other expenses, plus the principal and interest of the loan, the average daily turnover should be at least more than 1700 yuan to achieve capital preservation.

I understand all this, but what does it mean?

At the beginning of opening a store, too many operators like to calculate passenger flow, cost, and break-even point as I listed above, as if "it is not difficult to achieve an average daily XXXX!"

It's just like when we took CET-4 or CET-6, we bought a word book from the bookstore and began to think, "I memorize 10 words a day, and that's 3650 words a year!" Do the math and be as happy as if you had already passed the exam.

Ashamed to say, this is how I settled accounts when I first opened the store in 2011. I came back from the lesson to talk about the "mind method"-what's wrong with this algorithm?

Too neglected "development cost"

Last year, there was a popular article in moments-"No profit, no service". The reason is the same. If operators only use "capital preservation" as an excuse for complacency, it is very dangerous. In the case of "capital preservation" or "debt", operators can not spend more of their spare money on learning, research, innovation, development, and even can not use surplus funds to reward coffee partners who fight on the front line with you.

The coffee industry is still young and developing rapidly, whether it is equipment, technology, decoration, materials, a wave of trends are pushing people forward, to be content with the status quo is to sit back and live in vain. So, what needs to be reflected on is: do you set aside "costs" for development?

The store is profitable, but the coffee machine has been working for five years, the knife head of the bean grinder has been seriously worn, the decoration has not been renovated, the fresh air system can not keep up, coffee beans and milk are the cheapest, anyway, they care less. When one day, 20 meters from next door opened a store that is a little better than you in all aspects, not to mention the customers, even the staff may be lost.

This is the reason why many stores fall out, ignore the "development cost" and make the book too simple. Behind the small profits, there are many hidden worries.

Coming back to today's question, "can I borrow money to open a coffee shop?" My advice is to try not to do this, even if you use a very short time to make ends meet, to carry the "loan pressure" to earn "development funds", this is really a very difficult thing.

Dream is the driving force, business depends on perseverance, business still have to think twice.

Thank you for your reading, this article boutique coffee aesthetics JOE original.