ICE Arabica Coffee Falls to Five-Month Low

Investors in global coffee markets watched nervously on Monday as prices for the world’s most traded arabica coffee contracts dropped sharply, hitting levels not seen since July. With the year drawing to a close, many chose to lock in profits—or cut losses—leading to a sustained sell-off that sent prices tumbling for the fifth straight session.

Yes, ICE arabica coffee futures for March delivery fell 3.45 cents, or 2%, to settle at $1.6515 per pound—the lowest since July 18—and earlier touched $1.6465, the weakest intraday level in over five months.

Why Did Arabica Coffee Futures Drop So Sharply?

The primary driver was year-end position squaring. Traders with long positions—bets that prices would rise—chose to exit those bets ahead of the year-end, creating heavy selling pressure. This technical selling, combined with thin holiday trading volumes, exaggerated the downward move. The market is currently showing a bearish technical bias, further encouraging speculative traders to reduce exposure.

What Were the Exact Price Moves Across Coffee and Other Commodities?

Here’s how key commodities settled on the day:

• March arabica coffee: Down 3.45 cents (2%) to $1.6515 per pound, lowest since July 18; earlier hit $1.6465.
• March robusta coffee: Fell 28 USD (1.5%) to $1,875 per tonne.
• March New York cocoa: Rose 23 USD (0.8%) to $2,964 per tonne.
• March London cocoa: Dropped 7 GBP (0.4%) to $1,982 per tonne.
• March raw sugar: Fell 0.1 cent (0.7%) to $14.60 per pound, hitting a contract low of $14.53 intraday.
• March white sugar: Declined 5.8 USD (1.5%) to $386.20 per tonne.

Why Were Trading Volumes So Light?

Overall trading activity across New York and London soft commodities markets was subdued. Many market participants had already squared positions or reduced exposure ahead of holidays, leading to thinner volumes and greater price volatility on the limited flows that remained. This lack of liquidity can amplify price moves, especially when large speculators exit en masse.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did ICE arabica coffee futures fall to a five-month low?

ICE arabica coffee futures dropped due to widespread selling by investors closing out long positions before year-end. This was driven by technical factors and thin holiday trading volumes, pushing March futures down 2% to $1.6515 per pound—the lowest since July 18.

What was the lowest price for arabica coffee futures in this recent decline?

The March arabica coffee futures contract hit an intraday low of $1.6465 per pound, the weakest level since July 18, before settling at $1.6515—a five-month low.

How much did other commodities like cocoa and sugar move on the same day?

New York March cocoa rose 23 USD (0.8%) to $2,964 per tonne, while London March cocoa fell 7 GBP (0.4%) to $1,982 per tonne. Raw sugar for March fell 0.1 cent (0.7%) to $14.60 per pound, hitting a low of $14.53. White sugar dropped 5.8 USD (1.5%) to $386.20 per tonne.

Why were trading volumes low in the coffee and commodity markets that day?

Trading volumes were light because many participants had already closed positions or reduced exposure ahead of the holidays, leading to reduced liquidity and increased price sensitivity to the trades that did occur.

Is this drop in coffee futures unusual for this time of year?

While year-end profit-taking is common, the sustained five-session decline and technical weakness reflect broader positioning moves. The specific drop to a five-month low is notable but aligns with typical end-of-year volatility in thinly traded markets.

Recommended FrontStreet Beans for Exploring Arabica Flavors

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