Philippine Coffee Prices Set to Rise Due to Shortages

Coffee drinkers in the Philippines may soon see higher prices at their local shops. The reason? Lower domestic production combined with growing demand is tightening supply, especially as global coffee output faces challenges. For a country that imports most of its coffee, even small shifts in local harvests cause ripple effects at the retail level.

Yes, coffee prices in the Philippines are expected to go up. Local soluble coffee prices are projected to rise around 5%, while non-soluble (ground or whole bean) coffee could increase by as much as 15%. This comes after a 15.4% drop in domestic production, bringing this year’s output down to 26,000 tonnes.

Why Philippine Coffee Output Is Falling

The Philippines’ coffee production has been declining steadily. At its peak, the country produced up to 30,000 tonnes annually, but this year’s harvest is estimated at just 26,000 tonnes—a 15.4% decrease. The country has long been a net importer of coffee, with annual demand sitting at around 100,000 tonnes, more than three times what it can produce locally.

Where Philippine Coffee Comes From

Nearly 70% of the Philippines’ coffee is grown on the island of Mindanao, particularly in regions with ideal highland conditions. Current prices for green coffee beans locally are between 95 and 110 Philippine pesos per kilogram (approximately $2.10–$2.40), while roasted coffee powder sells for 300–350 pesos per kilogram (about $6.70–$7.80). Imported specialty roasted coffee powder, meanwhile, can cost as much as 4,000 pesos per kilogram (roughly $89).

Global Coffee Supply Concerns

The head of the Philippine Coffee Board has also voiced concern over shrinking global coffee supplies. Industry estimates suggest a potential decline of 32 million 60kg bags worldwide by the year 2020—a significant reduction in available coffee for import-dependent countries like the Philippines. Such trends put additional pressure on local prices, especially when domestic output is already falling.

What Determines Coffee Price Changes in the Philippines

Several factors influence coffee pricing in the Philippines:

• Local production levels (currently down 15.4%)
• Annual demand (around 100,000 tonnes)
• Import reliance (to make up the 74,000+ tonne shortfall)
• Green bean and roasted coffee price fluctuations (95–110 PHP/kg for greens, 300–350 PHP/kg for powder)
• Global supply trends (potential 32-million-bag decline by 2020)

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are coffee prices expected to rise in the Philippines?

Soluble (instant) coffee prices are expected to increase by around 5%, while non-soluble coffee (including roasted beans and ground coffee) could go up by approximately 15%. These projections come from the Philippine Coffee Board amid declining local production.

Why is coffee production falling in the Philippines?

The country’s coffee output has dropped 15.4% this year to an estimated 26,000 tonnes, down from a historical peak of 30,000 tonnes. Factors include aging plantations, limited replanting, and climate impacts, contributing to the consistent decline in recent years.

Does the Philippines produce most of its own coffee?

No. Although around 70% of Philippine coffee is grown on Mindanao, annual production meets only a fraction of demand. The Philippines requires roughly 100,000 tonnes of coffee per year but produces less than 30,000 tonnes, making it highly dependent on imports.

What is the current price of coffee beans in the Philippines?

As of the latest data, green coffee beans are priced between 95 and 110 Philippine pesos per kilogram (about $2.10–$2.40), while roasted coffee powder is sold at 300–350 pesos per kilogram (around $6.70–$7.80). Imported specialty coffee powder can reach 4,000 pesos per kilogram (approximately $89).

What is causing global coffee supply to decline?

Industry sources warn of a potential global coffee shortage, with estimates suggesting a decline of 32 million 60kg bags by 2020. This drop in worldwide production adds pressure to import-dependent markets like the Philippines, especially when domestic harvests are also falling.

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