2019 Coffee Market Forecast: the price of coffee beans has fallen sharply, and the output may be reduced.
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The price of coffee beans plummeted in 2018, making it cheaper for companies that sell coffee-related products, but suffering for farmers, but that could reverse in 2019, as falling prices cause coffee farmers to grow less.
Coffee farmers are having a hard time because the futures price of Arabica coffee beans plunged 20% in 2018, the lowest level since 2006. In Brazilian Lille terms, the average price paid to Brazilian coffee bean farmers in 2018 was the lowest in four years, as demand growth was offset by a surge in supply of Brazilian coffee beans. Brazil's boom in investment in coffee trees, fertilizers and improved planting techniques over the past few years, coupled with the best coffee growing climate in 2018, has boosted supply.
The USDA predicted in December that global coffee bean production would reach a record 174.5 million bags in the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 15.6 million bags over 2017, in part because of increased production in Colombia and Vietnam. The continued depreciation of Lille and Colombian pesos against the dollar has prompted local farmers to sell more dollar-denominated coffee beans, causing prices to fall.
Dias, commercial manager of Cooxupe, a Brazilian coffee company, estimates that the supply of coffee beans in Brazil will fall to 55 million bags from a record 63.4 million bags in 2018.
Costa, manager of coffee beans in the United States at Comexin, a Brazilian trading company, said the price of coffee beans fell to an all-time low in 2018, making it difficult for coffee farmers to expand supply. Analysts say coffee bean prices are likely to rise again as the coffee industry pushes ahead with major measures that promise to increase global coffee consumption.
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